An area of low pressure to the north of Australia, that was favored to develop into a TC in the previous outlook, weakened while moving onland near Darwin, Australia. Since last week, no TCs formed in global tropics. Downstream, impacts tied to the MJO remain uncertain, with extended range guidance continuing to mimic a negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Nina dominating the extratropical response over North America well into January. Velocity potential forecasts from the dynamical models suggest any coherent MJO signal is more likely to manifest itself in the southern Hemisphere, as an enhanced SPCZ forecast and a reduced shear environment is expected favor tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the South Pacific during the next two weeks. Another period of renewed eastward propagation is possible during week-2, however there is still much uncertainty in this realization given the continued destructive interference with the La Nina background state. However, this renewed activity looks to be short lived based on the RMM forecasts, which generally favor a westward retreat of the signal into phase 7 and a decrease in amplitude during week-1. While the amplitude of the MJO waned following a westerly wind burst event in early December, zonal wind observations show the redevelopment of anomalous lower-level westerlies across the Maritime Continent and West Pacific suggestive of renewed intraseasonal activity, with more suppressed convection and anomalous upper-level convergence strengthening over the Indian Ocean. An incoherent spatial pattern remains evident in the upper-level velocity potential anomalies which is likely due to ongoing competing interference with other modes of tropical variability. RMM observations show that the enhanced phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains in phase 7 over the West Pacific, where the intraseasonal signal has been fairly stagnant with little evidence of a canonical evolution in recent weeks. Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment Home